GOŠK Gabela 1–1 Zvijezda Gradačac: Result & Stats

GOŠK Gabela

FT

1 – 1

Zvijezda Gradačac

3/21/2021

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Stadion Podavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

GOŠK Gabela59%

×Draw23%

Zvijezda Gradačac19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK GabelaExpected goals in this matchZvijezda Gradačac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.93

GOŠK Gabela

1.84

Zvijezda Gradačac

0.93

GOŠK Gabela creates 98% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 82 away

2.03

creates per match

1.02

0.83

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela

2.03

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.02

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela

0.83

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw

81%

GOŠK Gabela or Zvijezda Gradačac

77%

Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac

41%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

34%

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

84%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

55%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

28%

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

61%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

24%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

76%

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 2.03 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.84

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + GOŠK Gabela defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more

59%

level

23%

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

19%

GOŠK Gabela at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff