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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Gornji Rahić — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
10/19/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Bet Ole Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac62%
×Draw20%
Gornji Rahić19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
2.22
Gornji Rahić
1.14

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 95% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 29 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Gornji Rahić
1.21

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Gornji Rahić
2.48

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Gornji Rahić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
81%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Gornji Rahić
80%
Draw or Gornji Rahić
38%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
39%
Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
89%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
65%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
38%
Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
68%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
32%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
77%
Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.22

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
62%
level
20%
Gornji Rahić scores more
19%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Gornji Rahić

Zvijezda Gradačac beat Gornji Rahić 3-2 in 1st League - FBiH on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Bet Ole Arena in Gradačac.