Gornji Rahić 1–1 Zvijezda Gradačac: Result & Stats

Gornji Rahić

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zvijezda Gradačac

5/11/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 25Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gornji Rahić56%

×Draw24%

Zvijezda Gradačac20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gornji RahićExpected goals in this matchZvijezda Gradačac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.94

Gornji Rahić

1.74

Zvijezda Gradačac

0.94

Gornji Rahić creates 85% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 82 away

1.83

creates per match

1.02

0.86

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Gornji Rahić

1.83

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.02

allows per match

Gornji Rahić

0.86

Zvijezda Gradačac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornji Rahić ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gornji Rahić or draw

80%

Gornji Rahić or Zvijezda Gradačac

76%

Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac

44%

Winning margin

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+

31%

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals

82%

Gornji Rahić 2+ goals

52%

Gornji Rahić 3+ goals

25%

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals

61%

Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals

24%

Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)

73%

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornji Rahić at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornji Rahić attack 1.83 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.74

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Gornji Rahić defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gornji Rahić scores more

56%

level

24%

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more

20%

Gornji Rahić at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff