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Zvijezda Gradačac vs Čapljina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
FT
4 – 0
Čapljina
Čapljina
10/10/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Stadion Banja Ilidža

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zvijezda Gradačac60%
×Draw22%
Čapljina19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Čapljina
0.99

Zvijezda Gradačac creates 98% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.96
Čapljina
0.91

allows per match

Zvijezda Gradačac
1.06
Čapljina
1.96

finishing

Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par
Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda Gradačac ↓

Čapljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zvijezda Gradačac or draw
81%
Zvijezda Gradačac or Čapljina
78%
Draw or Čapljina
40%

Winning margin

Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
36%
Čapljina wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
86%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
58%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
31%
Čapljina 1+ goals
63%
Čapljina 2+ goals
26%
Čapljina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
76%
Čapljina (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda Gradačac at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.96 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.96

Čapljina attack 0.91 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
60%
level
22%
Čapljina scores more
19%

Zvijezda Gradačac at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zvijezda Gradačac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Čapljina

Zvijezda Gradačac beat Čapljina 4-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Banja Ilidža in Gradačac.