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Čapljina vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čapljina
Čapljina
FT
3 – 1
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
5/8/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 25Stadion Bjelave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Čapljina53%
×Draw25%
Zvijezda Gradačac22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čapljina
1.61
Zvijezda Gradačac
0.93

Čapljina creates 73% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 82 away

creates per match

Čapljina
1.57
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Čapljina
0.83
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw
78%
Čapljina or Zvijezda Gradačac
75%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
47%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+
28%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals
80%
Čapljina 2+ goals
48%
Čapljina 3+ goals
22%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
61%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
24%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)
71%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.57 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Čapljina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Čapljina scores more
53%
level
25%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
22%

Čapljina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čapljina vs Zvijezda Gradačac

Čapljina beat Zvijezda Gradačac 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Bjelave in Čapljina.