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Zvijezda 09 vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
5/20/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 32Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda 0933%
×Draw26%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda 09
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.45

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 110 away

creates per match

Zvijezda 09
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.12

allows per match

Zvijezda 09
1.78
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.29

finishing

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda 09 ↓

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zvijezda 09 or draw
58%
Zvijezda 09 or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
74%
Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
67%

Winning margin

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
14%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
71%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
36%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
13%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals
77%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals
42%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
44%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda 09 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.22 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.12 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zvijezda 09 scores more
33%
level
26%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more
42%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda 09 vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo beat Zvijezda 09 5-0 in Premijer Liga on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Novi Gradski Stadion in Ugljevik.