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Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zvijezda 09 — Premijer Liga 2019

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
CANC
00:00
Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
4/4/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 25Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo70%
×Draw19%
Zvijezda 0911%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.06
Zvijezda 09
0.65

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 217% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 28 away

creates per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.45
Zvijezda 09
0.43

allows per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.86
Zvijezda 09
2.68

finishing

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par
Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ↓

Zvijezda 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw
89%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Zvijezda 09
81%
Draw or Zvijezda 09
30%

Winning margin

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+
45%
Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals
87%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals
61%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals
34%
Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
48%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
14%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)
87%
Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 113 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.45 + Zvijezda 09 defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.06

Zvijezda 09 attack 0.43 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more
70%
level
19%
Zvijezda 09 scores more
11%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zvijezda 09 — Match Preview

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo face Zvijezda 09 on April 4, 2020 in this Premijer Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo host Zvijezda 09 at Stadion Grbavica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.