Zvijezda 09 3–2 Tuzla City: Result & Stats

Zvijezda 09

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tuzla City

4/24/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 28Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda 0937%

×Draw25%

Tuzla City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvijezda 09Expected goals in this matchTuzla City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

Zvijezda 09

1.41

Tuzla City

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 78 away

1.22

creates per match

1.04

1.78

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Zvijezda 09

1.22

Tuzla City

1.04

allows per match

Zvijezda 09

1.78

Tuzla City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda 09 ↓

Tuzla City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zvijezda 09 or draw

63%

Zvijezda 09 or Tuzla City

75%

Draw or Tuzla City

63%

Winning margin

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

17%

Tuzla City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

76%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

41%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

17%

Tuzla City 1+ goals

76%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

41%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

50%

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda 09 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.22 + Tuzla City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tuzla City attack 1.04 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zvijezda 09 scores more

37%

level

25%

Tuzla City scores more

37%

Zvijezda 09 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zvijezda 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff