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Tuzla City vs Zvijezda 09 — Premijer Liga 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
3/2/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 21Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tuzla City68%
×Draw19%
Zvijezda 0913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
2.13
Zvijezda 09
0.81

Tuzla City creates 163% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.57
Zvijezda 09
0.43

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.20
Zvijezda 09
2.68

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Zvijezda 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
87%
Tuzla City or Zvijezda 09
81%
Draw or Zvijezda 09
32%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
43%
Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
88%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
63%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
35%
Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
56%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
19%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
84%
Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.57 + Zvijezda 09 defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.13

Zvijezda 09 attack 0.43 + Tuzla City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tuzla City scores more
68%
level
19%
Zvijezda 09 scores more
13%

Tuzla City at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Tuzla City 2–0 Zvijezda 09

Tuzla City beat Zvijezda 09 2-0 in Premijer Liga on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.