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Zvijezda 09 vs Posušje — Premijer Liga 2019

Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Posušje
Posušje
9/24/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 8Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda 0940%
×Draw26%
Posušje34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda 09
1.37
Posušje
1.25

Zvijezda 09 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 85 away

creates per match

Zvijezda 09
1.22
Posušje
0.73

allows per match

Zvijezda 09
1.78
Posušje
1.52

finishing

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par
Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda 09 ↓

Posušje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zvijezda 09 or draw
66%
Zvijezda 09 or Posušje
74%
Draw or Posušje
60%

Winning margin

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
18%
Posušje wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
75%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
40%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
16%
Posušje 1+ goals
71%
Posušje 2+ goals
36%
Posušje 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
54%
Posušje (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda 09 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

Posušje away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.22 + Posušje defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

Posušje attack 0.73 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zvijezda 09 scores more
40%
level
26%
Posušje scores more
34%

Zvijezda 09 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zvijezda 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Zvijezda 09 0–2 Posušje

Posušje beat Zvijezda 09 2-0 in Premijer Liga on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Novi Gradski Stadion in Ugljevik.