Posušje 2–0 Zvijezda 09: Result & Stats

Posušje

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Zvijezda 09

5/26/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 33Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Posušje67%

×Draw21%

Zvijezda 0913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PosušjeExpected goals in this matchZvijezda 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.68

Posušje

1.91

Zvijezda 09

0.68

Posušje creates 181% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 28 away

1.14

creates per match

0.43

0.93

allows per match

2.68

creates per match

Posušje

1.14

Zvijezda 09

0.43

allows per match

Posušje

0.93

Zvijezda 09

2.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Zvijezda 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Posušje or draw

87%

Posušje or Zvijezda 09

79%

Draw or Zvijezda 09

33%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+

41%

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals

85%

Posušje 2+ goals

57%

Posušje 3+ goals

30%

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

49%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

15%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)

84%

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 1.14 + Zvijezda 09 defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.91

Zvijezda 09 attack 0.43 + Posušje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Posušje scores more

67%

level

21%

Zvijezda 09 scores more

13%

Posušje at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff