Zvijezda 09 1–1 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Zvijezda 09

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

8/3/2019

Premijer Liga · Round 3Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda 0944%

×Draw25%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvijezda 09Expected goals in this matchMladost Doboj Kakanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

Zvijezda 09

1.52

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.25

Zvijezda 09 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

1.22

creates per match

0.71

1.78

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Zvijezda 09

1.22

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.71

allows per match

Zvijezda 09

1.78

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda 09 ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zvijezda 09 or draw

69%

Zvijezda 09 or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

75%

Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

56%

Winning margin

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

22%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

78%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

45%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

20%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

71%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

36%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

58%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda 09 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.22 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zvijezda 09 scores more

44%

level

25%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

31%

Zvijezda 09 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zvijezda 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff