Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1–0 Zvijezda 09

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zvijezda 09

10/25/2019

Premijer Liga · Round 14MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj58%

×Draw23%

Zvijezda 0920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Doboj KakanjExpected goals in this matchZvijezda 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.97

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.84

Zvijezda 09

0.97

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 90% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

1.00

creates per match

0.43

1.52

allows per match

2.68

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.00

Zvijezda 09

0.43

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.52

Zvijezda 09

2.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Zvijezda 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw

80%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Zvijezda 09

77%

Draw or Zvijezda 09

42%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

33%

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

84%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

55%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

28%

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

62%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

25%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

75%

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.00 + Zvijezda 09 defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Zvijezda 09 attack 0.43 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

58%

level

23%

Zvijezda 09 scores more

20%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff