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Zvijezda 09 vs Igman Konjic — Premijer Liga 2019

Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
5/4/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 30Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda 0944%
×Draw23%
Igman Konjic33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda 09
1.77
Igman Konjic
1.49

Zvijezda 09 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 51 away

creates per match

Zvijezda 09
1.22
Igman Konjic
1.20

allows per match

Zvijezda 09
1.78
Igman Konjic
2.31

finishing

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par
Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda 09 ↓

Igman Konjic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Zvijezda 09 or draw
67%
Zvijezda 09 or Igman Konjic
77%
Draw or Igman Konjic
56%

Winning margin

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
24%
Igman Konjic wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
83%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
53%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
26%
Igman Konjic 1+ goals
77%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
44%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
58%
Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda 09 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.22 + Igman Konjic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.77

Igman Konjic attack 1.20 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zvijezda 09 scores more
44%
level
23%
Igman Konjic scores more
33%

Zvijezda 09 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zvijezda 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvijezda 09 vs Igman Konjic

Zvijezda 09 and Igman Konjic drew 2-2 in Premijer Liga on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Novi Gradski Stadion in Ugljevik.