Igman Konjic 3–1 Zvijezda 09: Result & Stats

Igman Konjic

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Zvijezda 09

11/4/2023

Premijer Liga · Round 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Igman Konjic61%

×Draw22%

Zvijezda 0917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Igman KonjicExpected goals in this matchZvijezda 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.87

Igman Konjic

1.87

Zvijezda 09

0.87

Igman Konjic creates 115% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 28 away

1.06

creates per match

0.43

1.31

allows per match

2.68

creates per match

Igman Konjic

1.06

Zvijezda 09

0.43

allows per match

Igman Konjic

1.31

Zvijezda 09

2.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Zvijezda 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw

83%

Igman Konjic or Zvijezda 09

78%

Draw or Zvijezda 09

39%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

36%

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

85%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

56%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

29%

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

58%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

22%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

78%

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.06 + Zvijezda 09 defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.87

Zvijezda 09 attack 0.43 + Igman Konjic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Igman Konjic scores more

61%

level

22%

Zvijezda 09 scores more

17%

Igman Konjic at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff