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Zvijezda 09 vs GOŠK Gabela — Premijer Liga 2019

Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
4/13/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 26Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvijezda 0944%
×Draw23%
GOŠK Gabela33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvijezda 09
1.71
GOŠK Gabela
1.46

Zvijezda 09 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zvijezda 09
1.22
GOŠK Gabela
1.15

allows per match

Zvijezda 09
1.78
GOŠK Gabela
2.21

finishing

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvijezda 09 ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zvijezda 09 or draw
67%
Zvijezda 09 or GOŠK Gabela
77%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
56%

Winning margin

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
23%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
82%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
51%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
24%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
77%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
43%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
57%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvijezda 09 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.22 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zvijezda 09 scores more
44%
level
23%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
33%

Zvijezda 09 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zvijezda 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Zvijezda 09 1–2 GOŠK Gabela

GOŠK Gabela beat Zvijezda 09 2-1 in Premijer Liga on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Novi Gradski Stadion in Ugljevik.