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GOŠK Gabela vs Zvijezda 09 — Premijer Liga 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
8/12/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 3Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

GOŠK Gabela50%
×Draw23%
Zvijezda 0927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
1.76
Zvijezda 09
1.23

GOŠK Gabela creates 43% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 28 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.84
Zvijezda 09
0.43

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Zvijezda 09
2.68

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Zvijezda 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
73%
GOŠK Gabela or Zvijezda 09
77%
Draw or Zvijezda 09
50%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
27%
Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
83%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
52%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
26%
Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
71%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
35%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
65%
Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 0.84, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 0.84 + Zvijezda 09 defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.76

Zvijezda 09 attack 0.43 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
50%
level
23%
Zvijezda 09 scores more
27%

GOŠK Gabela at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: GOŠK Gabela 2–0 Zvijezda 09

GOŠK Gabela beat Zvijezda 09 2-0 in Premijer Liga on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović in Gabela.