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Zvezdara vs Studentski Grad — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Zvezdara
Zvezdara
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Studentski Grad
Studentski Grad
9/8/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 4Stadion na Bulbulderu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Zvezdara53%
×Draw24%
Studentski Grad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezdara
1.76
Studentski Grad
1.10

Zvezdara creates 60% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 77 away

creates per match

Zvezdara
1.63
Studentski Grad
1.10

allows per match

Zvezdara
1.09
Studentski Grad
1.90

finishing

Zvezdara+0.00on par
Studentski Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezdara ↓

Studentski Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zvezdara or draw
76%
Zvezdara or Studentski Grad
76%
Draw or Studentski Grad
47%

Winning margin

Zvezdara wins by 2+
29%
Studentski Grad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zvezdara 1+ goals
83%
Zvezdara 2+ goals
52%
Zvezdara 3+ goals
26%
Studentski Grad 1+ goals
67%
Studentski Grad 2+ goals
30%
Studentski Grad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zvezdara (draw refunded)
69%
Studentski Grad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezdara at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.09 · 98 matches

Studentski Grad away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezdara attack 1.63 + Studentski Grad defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.76

Studentski Grad attack 1.10 + Zvezdara defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zvezdara scores more
53%
level
24%
Studentski Grad scores more
24%

Zvezdara at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zvezdara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezdara vs Studentski Grad

Zvezdara beat Studentski Grad 5-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion na Bulbulderu in Beograd.