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Studentski Grad vs Zvezdara — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Studentski Grad
Studentski Grad
FT
1 – 0
Zvezdara
Zvezdara
3/17/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 18Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Studentski Grad39%
×Draw26%
Zvezdara35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Studentski Grad
1.36
Zvezdara
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 99 away

creates per match

Studentski Grad
1.27
Zvezdara
1.32

allows per match

Studentski Grad
1.22
Zvezdara
1.46

finishing

Studentski Grad+0.00on par
Zvezdara+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Studentski Grad ↓

Zvezdara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Studentski Grad or draw
65%
Studentski Grad or Zvezdara
74%
Draw or Zvezdara
61%

Winning margin

Studentski Grad wins by 2+
18%
Zvezdara wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Studentski Grad 1+ goals
74%
Studentski Grad 2+ goals
39%
Studentski Grad 3+ goals
16%
Zvezdara 1+ goals
72%
Zvezdara 2+ goals
36%
Zvezdara 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Studentski Grad (draw refunded)
53%
Zvezdara (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Studentski Grad at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

Zvezdara away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Studentski Grad attack 1.27 + Zvezdara defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Zvezdara attack 1.32 + Studentski Grad defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Studentski Grad scores more
39%
level
26%
Zvezdara scores more
35%

Studentski Grad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Studentski Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Studentski Grad 1–0 Zvezdara

Studentski Grad beat Zvezdara 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Bežanija in Beograd.