Zvezdara 2–4 Radnički Obrenovac: Result & Stats

Zvezdara

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Radnički Obrenovac

11/10/2024

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 13Stadion na Bulbulderu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Zvezdara43%

×Draw25%

Radnički Obrenovac32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZvezdaraExpected goals in this matchRadnički Obrenovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.26

Zvezdara

1.52

Radnički Obrenovac

1.26

Zvezdara creates 21% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 98 away

1.63

creates per match

1.43

1.09

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Zvezdara

1.63

Radnički Obrenovac

1.43

allows per match

Zvezdara

1.09

Radnički Obrenovac

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezdara+0.00on par

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezdara ↓

Radnički Obrenovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zvezdara or draw

68%

Zvezdara or Radnički Obrenovac

75%

Draw or Radnički Obrenovac

57%

Winning margin

Zvezdara wins by 2+

21%

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zvezdara 1+ goals

78%

Zvezdara 2+ goals

45%

Zvezdara 3+ goals

20%

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals

72%

Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals

36%

Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zvezdara (draw refunded)

58%

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezdara at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.09 · 98 matches

Radnički Obrenovac away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezdara attack 1.63 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.43 + Zvezdara defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zvezdara scores more

43%

level

25%

Radnički Obrenovac scores more

32%

Zvezdara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zvezdara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff