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Radnički Obrenovac vs Zvezdara — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Radnički Obrenovac
Radnički Obrenovac
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Zvezdara
Zvezdara
3/29/2026Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Radnički Obrenovac49%
×Draw24%
Zvezdara26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Obrenovac
1.68
Zvezdara
1.16

Radnički Obrenovac creates 45% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 99 away

creates per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.90
Zvezdara
1.32

allows per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.00
Zvezdara
1.46

finishing

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par
Zvezdara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Obrenovac ↓

Zvezdara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radnički Obrenovac or draw
74%
Radnički Obrenovac or Zvezdara
76%
Draw or Zvezdara
51%

Winning margin

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+
26%
Zvezdara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals
81%
Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals
50%
Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals
24%
Zvezdara 1+ goals
69%
Zvezdara 2+ goals
32%
Zvezdara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)
65%
Zvezdara (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Obrenovac at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 98 matches

Zvezdara away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.90 + Zvezdara defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.68

Zvezdara attack 1.32 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Radnički Obrenovac scores more
49%
level
24%
Zvezdara scores more
26%

Radnički Obrenovac at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Radnički Obrenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Radnički Obrenovac 5–2 Zvezdara

Radnički Obrenovac beat Zvezdara 5-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 29, 2026.