Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–1 Znamya Truda

Zvezda St. Petersburg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Znamya Truda

5/18/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg46%

×Draw24%

Znamya Truda29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchZnamya Truda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.25

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.63

Znamya Truda

1.25

Zvezda St. Petersburg creates 30% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 68 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

1.44

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.67

Znamya Truda

1.07

allows per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.44

Znamya Truda

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda St. Petersburg ↓

Znamya Truda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw

71%

Zvezda St. Petersburg or Znamya Truda

76%

Draw or Znamya Truda

54%

Winning margin

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+

24%

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals

80%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals

48%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals

22%

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

71%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

36%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

61%

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.67 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.63

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more

46%

level

24%

Znamya Truda scores more

29%

Zvezda St. Petersburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zvezda St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff