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Znamya Truda vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
10/13/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znamya Truda38%
×Draw26%
Zvezda St. Petersburg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.37
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 89 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.22

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.69

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
63%
Znamya Truda or Zvezda St. Petersburg
74%
Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg
62%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
17%
Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
75%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
40%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
16%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
74%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
39%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
51%
Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.37

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
38%
level
26%
Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
37%

Znamya Truda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Znamya Truda 0–0 Zvezda St. Petersburg

Znamya Truda and Zvezda St. Petersburg drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 13, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.