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Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Yenisey II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Yenisey II
Yenisey II
8/25/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg56%
×Draw22%
Yenisey II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.98
Yenisey II
1.18

Zvezda St. Petersburg creates 68% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 76 away

creates per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.67
Yenisey II
0.92

allows per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.44
Yenisey II
2.30

finishing

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Yenisey II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda St. Petersburg ↓

Yenisey II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw
78%
Zvezda St. Petersburg or Yenisey II
78%
Draw or Yenisey II
44%

Winning margin

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
33%
Yenisey II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
86%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
59%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
31%
Yenisey II 1+ goals
69%
Yenisey II 2+ goals
33%
Yenisey II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
71%
Yenisey II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Yenisey II away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.67 + Yenisey II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.98

Yenisey II attack 0.92 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
56%
level
22%
Yenisey II scores more
22%

Zvezda St. Petersburg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zvezda St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Zvezda St. Petersburg 3–4 Yenisey II

Yenisey II beat Zvezda St. Petersburg 4-3 in Second League - Group 2 on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.