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Yenisey II vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Yenisey II
Yenisey II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
4/12/2026Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Yenisey II40%
×Draw24%
Zvezda St. Petersburg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey II
1.54
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 89 away

creates per match

Yenisey II
1.40
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.22

allows per match

Yenisey II
1.64
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.69

finishing

Yenisey II+0.00on par
Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey II ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Yenisey II or draw
65%
Yenisey II or Zvezda St. Petersburg
76%
Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg
60%

Winning margin

Yenisey II wins by 2+
20%
Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yenisey II 1+ goals
79%
Yenisey II 2+ goals
45%
Yenisey II 3+ goals
20%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
76%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
42%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Yenisey II (draw refunded)
53%
Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.64 · 77 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey II attack 1.40 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Yenisey II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yenisey II scores more
40%
level
24%
Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
35%

Yenisey II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yenisey II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yenisey II vs Zvezda St. Petersburg

Yenisey II beat Zvezda St. Petersburg 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 12, 2026.