Zvezda St. Petersburg 4–1 Smolensk: Result & Stats

Zvezda St. Petersburg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Smolensk

Y. Galeev 90+3'

D. Yashchuk 46', 35' (pen)

A. Gasilin 17' (pen)

A. Vasiljev 72'

6/10/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg54%

×Draw23%

Smolensk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchSmolensk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.08

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.80

Smolensk

1.08

Zvezda St. Petersburg creates 67% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

0.73

1.44

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.67

Smolensk

0.73

allows per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.44

Smolensk

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Smolensk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda St. Petersburg ↓

Smolensk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw

77%

Zvezda St. Petersburg or Smolensk

77%

Draw or Smolensk

46%

Winning margin

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+

30%

Smolensk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals

83%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals

54%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals

27%

Smolensk 1+ goals

66%

Smolensk 2+ goals

29%

Smolensk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

70%

Smolensk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Smolensk away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.67 + Smolensk defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.80

Smolensk attack 0.73 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more

54%

level

23%

Smolensk scores more

23%

Zvezda St. Petersburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Zvezda St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

A. GasilinPenalty

35'

D. YashchukPenalty

46'

S. Zapalatskiy← E. Vartanyan

46'

D. Yashchuk

57'

S. Chernenko← A. Melnikov

62'

S. Iljin← D. Yashchuk

71'

Y. Galeev← K. Makeev

72'

A. Vasiljev

78'

E. Ignatovich← I. Smirnov

80'

A. Artamonov← I. Solomonov

80'

N. Mozgovoy← V. Zherebyatnikov

82'

P. Vasiljev

82'

P. Vasiljev

84'

A. Plotnikov← A. Savchenkov

85'

A. Artamov

90+3'

Y. Galeev

Zvezda

Smolensk

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: G. Mikhalyuk

46'▲S. Zapalatskiy←▼E. Vartanyan

57'▲S. Chernenko←▼A. Melnikov

62'▲S. Iljin←▼D. Yashchuk

71'▲Y. Galeev←▼K. Makeev

78'▲E. Ignatovich←▼I. Smirnov

Zvezda St. Petersburg substitutes

ZapalatskiyChernenkoIljinGaleevIgnatovich

Manager: A. Durov

80'▲A. Artamonov←▼I. Solomonov

80'▲N. Mozgovoy←▼V. Zherebyatnikov

84'▲A. Plotnikov←▼A. Savchenkov

Smolensk substitutes

ArtamonovMozgovoyPlotnikov

Second League - Group 2: Zvezda St. Petersburg 4–1 Smolensk

Zvezda St. Petersburg beat Smolensk 4-1 in Second League - Group 2 on June 10, 2021.

Goals: A. Gasilin (17' pen), D. Yashchuk (35' pen, 46'), A. Vasiljev (72'), Y. Galeev (90+3').

Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Smolensk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Zvezda St. Petersburg 4–1 Smolensk