Smolensk 1–0 Zvezda St. Petersburg: Result & Stats

Smolensk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zvezda St. Petersburg

8/15/2020

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smolensk38%

×Draw27%

Zvezda St. Petersburg35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmolenskExpected goals in this matchZvezda St. Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.20

Smolensk

1.28

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

0.88

creates per match

1.22

1.18

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Smolensk

0.88

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.22

allows per match

Smolensk

1.18

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smolensk+0.00on par

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolensk ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Smolensk or draw

65%

Smolensk or Zvezda St. Petersburg

73%

Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg

62%

Winning margin

Smolensk wins by 2+

17%

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Smolensk 1+ goals

72%

Smolensk 2+ goals

37%

Smolensk 3+ goals

14%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals

70%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals

34%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Smolensk (draw refunded)

53%

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolensk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolensk attack 0.88 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Smolensk defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Smolensk scores more

38%

level

27%

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more

35%

Smolensk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Smolensk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff