Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–2 Luki-Energiya

Zvezda St. Petersburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Luki-Energiya

M. Andreev 22' (pen)

V. Prozorov 10'

N. Shepet 81'

A. Egorov 5'

6/1/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg50%

×Draw24%

Luki-Energiya26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchLuki-Energiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.13

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.67

Luki-Energiya

1.13

Zvezda St. Petersburg creates 48% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 87 away

1.67

creates per match

0.82

1.44

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.67

Luki-Energiya

0.82

allows per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.44

Luki-Energiya

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda St. Petersburg ↓

Luki-Energiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw

74%

Zvezda St. Petersburg or Luki-Energiya

76%

Draw or Luki-Energiya

50%

Winning margin

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+

27%

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals

81%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals

50%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals

23%

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals

68%

Luki-Energiya 2+ goals

31%

Luki-Energiya 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

66%

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Luki-Energiya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.67 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.67 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Luki-Energiya attack 0.82 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more

50%

level

24%

Luki-Energiya scores more

26%

Zvezda St. Petersburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zvezda St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

A. Egorov

10'

V. Prozorov

22'

M. AndreevPenalty

28'

V. Kasparyan← M. Andreev

46'

D. Spodarets← D. Zhemaytis

58'

A. Lukin← M. Mayboroda

62'

D. Sobolev← N. Khlusov

74'

N. Shepet← N. Polyakov

74'

I. Belik← A. Egorov

77'

S. Evsyutin← A. Filev

77'

K. Makarov← N. Khodorchenko

81'

N. Shepet

85'

S. Glebov← D. Shabalin

Zvezda

Luki-Energiya

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Orbu

28'▲V. Kasparyan←▼M. Andreev

62'▲D. Sobolev←▼N. Khlusov

77'▲S. Evsyutin←▼A. Filev

77'▲K. Makarov←▼N. Khodorchenko

Zvezda St. Petersburg substitutes

KasparyanSobolevEvsyutinMakarov

Manager: S. Osadchuk

46'▲D. Spodarets←▼D. Zhemaytis

58'▲A. Lukin←▼M. Mayboroda

74'▲N. Shepet←▼N. Polyakov

74'▲I. Belik←▼A. Egorov

85'▲S. Glebov←▼D. Shabalin

Luki-Energiya substitutes

SpodaretsLukinShepetBelikGlebov

Second League - Group 2: Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–2 Luki-Energiya

Zvezda St. Petersburg and Luki-Energiya drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 2 on June 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Egorov (5'), V. Prozorov (10'), M. Andreev (22' pen), N. Shepet (81').

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.

Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Luki-Energiya — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–2 Luki-Energiya