Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Luki-Energiya vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Luki-Energiya
Luki-Energiya
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
9/15/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Stadion Ekspress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Luki-Energiya43%
×Draw26%
Zvezda St. Petersburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luki-Energiya
1.48
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.22

Luki-Energiya creates 21% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 89 away

creates per match

Luki-Energiya
1.27
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.22

allows per match

Luki-Energiya
1.22
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.69

finishing

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par
Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luki-Energiya ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Luki-Energiya or draw
69%
Luki-Energiya or Zvezda St. Petersburg
74%
Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg
57%

Winning margin

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+
21%
Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals
77%
Luki-Energiya 2+ goals
43%
Luki-Energiya 3+ goals
19%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
70%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
34%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)
58%
Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luki-Energiya at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luki-Energiya attack 1.27 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luki-Energiya scores more
43%
level
26%
Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
31%

Luki-Energiya at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luki-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luki-Energiya vs Zvezda St. Petersburg

Luki-Energiya beat Zvezda St. Petersburg 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ekspress in Velikiye Luki.