Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–0 Kairat Moskva

Zvezda St. Petersburg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kairat Moskva

10/14/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg42%

×Draw26%

Kairat Moskva32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchKairat Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.22

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.44

Kairat Moskva

1.22

Zvezda St. Petersburg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

1.44

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.67

Kairat Moskva

1.00

allows per match

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.44

Kairat Moskva

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda St. Petersburg ↓

Kairat Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw

68%

Zvezda St. Petersburg or Kairat Moskva

74%

Draw or Kairat Moskva

58%

Winning margin

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+

20%

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals

76%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals

42%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals

18%

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals

70%

Kairat Moskva 2+ goals

34%

Kairat Moskva 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

57%

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.67 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more

42%

level

26%

Kairat Moskva scores more

32%

Zvezda St. Petersburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zvezda St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff