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Kairat Moskva vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
8/21/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kairat Moskva45%
×Draw23%
Zvezda St. Petersburg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Moskva
1.78
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.46

Kairat Moskva creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 89 away

creates per match

Kairat Moskva
1.88
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.22

allows per match

Kairat Moskva
1.69
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.69

finishing

Kairat Moskva+0.00on par
Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Moskva ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kairat Moskva or draw
68%
Kairat Moskva or Zvezda St. Petersburg
77%
Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg
55%

Winning margin

Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
24%
Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
83%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
53%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
26%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
77%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
43%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
59%
Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Moskva at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Moskva attack 1.88 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.78

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kairat Moskva scores more
45%
level
23%
Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
32%

Kairat Moskva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kairat Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Moskva vs Zvezda St. Petersburg

Kairat Moskva beat Zvezda St. Petersburg 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Odintsovo in Odintsovo.