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Zvezda Perm vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
4/4/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Manezh Perm Velikaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm56%
×Draw23%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
1.84
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.05

Zvezda Perm creates 75% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 39 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
2.32
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.31

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
0.79
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.36

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Volna Nizhegorodskaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
79%
Zvezda Perm or Volna Nizhegorodskaya
77%
Draw or Volna Nizhegorodskaya
44%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
32%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
84%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
55%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
28%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals
65%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals
28%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
72%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.31 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
56%
level
23%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more
21%

Zvezda Perm at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Zvezda Perm 2–1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya

Zvezda Perm beat Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Manezh Perm Velikaya in Perm.