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Volna Nizhegorodskaya vs Zvezda Perm — Second League - Group 4 2020

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
10/18/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya35%
×Draw26%
Zvezda Perm39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.31
Zvezda Perm
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 28 away

creates per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.38
Zvezda Perm
1.46

allows per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.30
Zvezda Perm
1.25

finishing

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna Nizhegorodskaya ↓

Zvezda Perm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw
61%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya or Zvezda Perm
74%
Draw or Zvezda Perm
65%

Winning margin

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+
16%
Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals
73%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals
38%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals
14%
Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
75%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
40%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)
48%
Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.38 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more
35%
level
26%
Zvezda Perm scores more
39%

Zvezda Perm at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volna Nizhegorodskaya vs Zvezda Perm

Zvezda Perm beat Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.