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Zvezda Perm vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
10/13/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm41%
×Draw25%
Volga Ulyanovsk34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
1.51
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.36

Zvezda Perm creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
2.32
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.93

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
0.79
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.71

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
66%
Zvezda Perm or Volga Ulyanovsk
75%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
59%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
20%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
78%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
44%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
19%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
74%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
39%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.93 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
41%
level
25%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
34%

Zvezda Perm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Zvezda Perm and Volga Ulyanovsk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on October 13, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.