Volga Ulyanovsk 3–0 Zvezda Perm: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zvezda Perm

I. Belyakov 81'

A. Geryugov 53'

G. Uridia 43'

9/12/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk48%

×Draw26%

Zvezda Perm26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchZvezda Perm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.48

Zvezda Perm

1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 48% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

1.71

creates per match

1.46

0.54

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.71

Zvezda Perm

1.46

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.54

Zvezda Perm

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Zvezda Perm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

74%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Zvezda Perm

74%

Draw or Zvezda Perm

52%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

24%

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

77%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

43%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

19%

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

63%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

26%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

65%

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.54 · 28 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.71 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

48%

level

26%

Zvezda Perm scores more

26%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

D. Chushyalov

43'

G. Uridia

46'

Denis Rakhmanov← D. Malykhin

46'

V. Alshanskiy← A. Bokovoy

53'

A. Geryugov

57'

R. Shcherbin← A. Eliseev

62'

M. Denilkhanov

65'

G. Paskin← G. Uridia

65'

A. Subbotin← I. Karpuk

72'

N. Muromskiy← A. Geryugov

73'

E. Paramonov← M. Shirokov

73'

A. Pridyuk← I. Ivanov

75'

E. Paramonov

78'

I. Belyakov← A. Kashtanov

78'

R. Tutaev← N. Supagin

81'

I. Belyakov

82'

A. Subbotin

85'

90'

V. Konyukhov

Volga

Zvezda

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Uridia

Manager: R. Aitov

46'▲Denis Rakhmanov←▼D. Malykhin

65'▲G. Paskin←▼G. Uridia

72'▲N. Muromskiy←▼A. Geryugov

78'▲I. Belyakov←▼A. Kashtanov

78'▲R. Tutaev←▼N. Supagin

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

RakhmanovPaskinMuromskiyBelyakovTutaev

Manager: M. Gavrish

46'▲V. Alshanskiy←▼A. Bokovoy

57'▲R. Shcherbin←▼A. Eliseev

65'▲A. Subbotin←▼I. Karpuk

73'▲E. Paramonov←▼M. Shirokov

73'▲A. Pridyuk←▼I. Ivanov

Zvezda Perm substitutes

AlshanskiyShcherbinSubbotinParamonovPridyuk