Zvezda Perm 1–0 Torpedo Miass: Result & Stats

Zvezda Perm

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Miass

8/7/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm54%

×Draw24%

Torpedo Miass22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda PermExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Miass

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.02

Zvezda Perm

1.73

Torpedo Miass

1.02

Zvezda Perm creates 70% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 36 away

2.32

creates per match

1.25

0.79

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Zvezda Perm

2.32

Torpedo Miass

1.25

allows per match

Zvezda Perm

0.79

Torpedo Miass

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Torpedo Miass →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw

78%

Zvezda Perm or Torpedo Miass

76%

Draw or Torpedo Miass

46%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

30%

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

82%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

52%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

25%

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals

64%

Torpedo Miass 2+ goals

27%

Torpedo Miass 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

71%

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.73

Torpedo Miass attack 1.25 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more

54%

level

24%

Torpedo Miass scores more

22%

Zvezda Perm at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff