Torpedo Miass 1–2 Zvezda Perm: Result & Stats

Torpedo Miass

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zvezda Perm

5/15/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Torpedo Miass34%

×Draw26%

Zvezda Perm40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MiassExpected goals in this matchZvezda Perm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.43

Torpedo Miass

1.31

Zvezda Perm

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

1.37

creates per match

1.46

1.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Torpedo Miass

1.37

Zvezda Perm

1.46

allows per match

Torpedo Miass

1.40

Zvezda Perm

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Zvezda Perm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw

60%

Torpedo Miass or Zvezda Perm

74%

Draw or Zvezda Perm

66%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+

15%

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals

73%

Torpedo Miass 2+ goals

38%

Torpedo Miass 3+ goals

14%

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

76%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

42%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)

46%

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.37 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more

34%

level

26%

Zvezda Perm scores more

40%

Zvezda Perm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff