Zvezda Perm 2–1 Ryazan W: Result & Stats

Zvezda Perm

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ryazan W

11/22/2020

Supreme Division Women · Round 14Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zvezda Perm59%

×Draw24%

Ryazan W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda PermExpected goals in this matchRyazan W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.72

Zvezda Perm

1.64

Ryazan W

0.72

Zvezda Perm creates 128% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 77 away

1.29

creates per match

0.88

0.57

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Zvezda Perm

1.29

Ryazan W

0.88

allows per match

Zvezda Perm

0.57

Ryazan W

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Ryazan W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Ryazan W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw

84%

Zvezda Perm or Ryazan W

76%

Draw or Ryazan W

41%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

33%

Ryazan W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

81%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

49%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

23%

Ryazan W 1+ goals

51%

Ryazan W 2+ goals

16%

Ryazan W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

79%

Ryazan W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Ryazan W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 1.29 + Ryazan W defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ryazan W attack 0.88 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more

59%

level

24%

Ryazan W scores more

16%

Zvezda Perm at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff