Ryazan W 0–0 Zvezda Perm: Result & Stats

Ryazan W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zvezda Perm

8/31/2020

Supreme Division Women · Round 7Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ryazan W22%

×Draw32%

Zvezda Perm46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ryazan WExpected goals in this matchZvezda Perm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.13

Ryazan W

0.69

Zvezda Perm

1.13

Zvezda Perm creates 64% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 7 away

0.95

creates per match

0.86

1.39

allows per match

0.43

creates per match

Ryazan W

0.95

Zvezda Perm

0.86

allows per match

Ryazan W

1.39

Zvezda Perm

0.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ryazan W+0.00on par

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ryazan W ↓

Zvezda Perm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–118%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ryazan W or draw

54%

Ryazan W or Zvezda Perm

68%

Draw or Zvezda Perm

78%

Winning margin

Ryazan W wins by 2+

6%

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ryazan W 1+ goals

50%

Ryazan W 2+ goals

15%

Ryazan W 3+ goals

3%

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

68%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

31%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ryazan W (draw refunded)

33%

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ryazan W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ryazan W attack 0.95 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.69

Zvezda Perm attack 0.86 + Ryazan W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ryazan W scores more

22%

level

32%

Zvezda Perm scores more

46%

Zvezda Perm at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

T. Krasnova← E. Lazareva

63'

S. Shishkina← A. Nurgalieva

66'

V. Dergousova← M. Vukovic

77'

K. Chichkala← A. Turieva

89'

Y. Litvinenko← I. Vlasenko

Ryazan

Zvezda

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Shebarshin

46'▲T. Krasnova←▼E. Lazareva

66'▲V. Dergousova←▼M. Vukovic

77'▲K. Chichkala←▼A. Turieva

Ryazan W substitutes

KrasnovaDergousovaChichkala

Manager: E. Suslova

63'▲S. Shishkina←▼A. Nurgalieva

89'▲Y. Litvinenko←▼I. Vlasenko

Zvezda Perm substitutes

ShishkinaLitvinenko

Supreme Division Women: Ryazan W 0–0 Zvezda Perm

Ryazan W and Zvezda Perm drew 0-0 in Supreme Division Women on August 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Ryazan'.

Ryazan W vs Zvezda Perm — Supreme Division Women 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Supreme Division Women: Ryazan W 0–0 Zvezda Perm