Zvezda Perm 1–1 Novosibirsk: Result & Stats

Zvezda Perm

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Novosibirsk

7/20/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm49%

×Draw25%

Novosibirsk26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zvezda PermExpected goals in this matchNovosibirsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.11

Zvezda Perm

1.63

Novosibirsk

1.11

Zvezda Perm creates 47% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

2.32

creates per match

1.43

0.79

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Zvezda Perm

2.32

Novosibirsk

1.43

allows per match

Zvezda Perm

0.79

Novosibirsk

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Novosibirsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw

74%

Zvezda Perm or Novosibirsk

75%

Draw or Novosibirsk

51%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

26%

Novosibirsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

80%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

48%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

22%

Novosibirsk 1+ goals

67%

Novosibirsk 2+ goals

30%

Novosibirsk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

66%

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Novosibirsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Novosibirsk attack 1.43 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more

49%

level

25%

Novosibirsk scores more

26%

Zvezda Perm at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff