Novosibirsk 2–1 Zvezda Perm: Result & Stats

Novosibirsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zvezda Perm

8/26/2020

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Novosibirsk40%

×Draw26%

Zvezda Perm34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovosibirskExpected goals in this matchZvezda Perm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.24

Novosibirsk

1.38

Zvezda Perm

1.24

Novosibirsk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 28 away

1.51

creates per match

1.46

1.02

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Novosibirsk

1.51

Zvezda Perm

1.46

allows per match

Novosibirsk

1.02

Zvezda Perm

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Zvezda Perm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw

66%

Novosibirsk or Zvezda Perm

74%

Draw or Zvezda Perm

60%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+

19%

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals

75%

Novosibirsk 2+ goals

40%

Novosibirsk 3+ goals

16%

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

71%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

35%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)

54%

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 1.51 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + Novosibirsk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Novosibirsk scores more

40%

level

26%

Zvezda Perm scores more

34%

Novosibirsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff