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Zvezda Perm vs Nosta — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Nosta
Nosta
10/25/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Manezh Perm Velikaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zvezda Perm66%
×Draw20%
Nosta14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
2.08
Nosta
0.84

Zvezda Perm creates 148% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 85 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
2.32
Nosta
0.89

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
0.79
Nosta
1.84

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Nosta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Nosta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
86%
Zvezda Perm or Nosta
80%
Draw or Nosta
34%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
41%
Nosta wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
87%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
61%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
34%
Nosta 1+ goals
57%
Nosta 2+ goals
21%
Nosta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
82%
Nosta (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Nosta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.84 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Nosta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.08

Nosta attack 0.89 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
66%
level
20%
Nosta scores more
14%

Zvezda Perm at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm vs Nosta

Zvezda Perm beat Nosta 6-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Manezh Perm Velikaya in Perm.