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Nosta vs Zvezda Perm — Second League - Group 4 2020

Nosta
Nosta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
6/4/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Nosta30%
×Draw26%
Zvezda Perm44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nosta
1.19
Zvezda Perm
1.48

Zvezda Perm creates 24% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 28 away

creates per match

Nosta
1.12
Zvezda Perm
1.46

allows per match

Nosta
1.51
Zvezda Perm
1.25

finishing

Nosta+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nosta ↓

Zvezda Perm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nosta or draw
56%
Nosta or Zvezda Perm
74%
Draw or Zvezda Perm
70%

Winning margin

Nosta wins by 2+
12%
Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nosta 1+ goals
70%
Nosta 2+ goals
33%
Nosta 3+ goals
12%
Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
77%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
43%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nosta (draw refunded)
41%
Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nosta at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nosta attack 1.12 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + Nosta defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nosta scores more
30%
level
26%
Zvezda Perm scores more
44%

Zvezda Perm at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Nosta 0–1 Zvezda Perm

Zvezda Perm beat Nosta 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Novotroitsk.