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Zvezda Perm vs Lada Dimitrovgrad — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
8/15/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Zvezda Perm55%
×Draw22%
Lada Dimitrovgrad23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
1.91
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.15

Zvezda Perm creates 66% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
2.32
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
0.79
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Lada Dimitrovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
77%
Zvezda Perm or Lada Dimitrovgrad
78%
Draw or Lada Dimitrovgrad
45%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
32%
Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
85%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
57%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
30%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
68%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
32%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
71%
Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 1.50 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
55%
level
22%
Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
23%

Zvezda Perm at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Zvezda Perm 3–2 Lada Dimitrovgrad

Zvezda Perm beat Lada Dimitrovgrad 3-2 in Second League - Group 4 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.