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Lada Dimitrovgrad vs Zvezda Perm — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
6/10/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad32%
×Draw29%
Zvezda Perm39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.05
Zvezda Perm
1.20

Zvezda Perm creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.86
Zvezda Perm
1.46

allows per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.93
Zvezda Perm
1.25

finishing

Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Dimitrovgrad ↓

Zvezda Perm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lada Dimitrovgrad or draw
61%
Lada Dimitrovgrad or Zvezda Perm
71%
Draw or Zvezda Perm
68%

Winning margin

Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
12%
Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
65%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
28%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
9%
Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
70%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
34%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
45%
Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 0.86 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
32%
level
29%
Zvezda Perm scores more
39%

Zvezda Perm at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lada Dimitrovgrad vs Zvezda Perm

Lada Dimitrovgrad beat Zvezda Perm 4-0 in Second League - Group 4 on June 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Dimitrovgrad.