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Zvezda Perm vs Irtysh Omsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
5/8/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zvezda Perm54%
×Draw22%
Irtysh Omsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zvezda Perm
1.99
Irtysh Omsk
1.25

Zvezda Perm creates 59% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zvezda Perm
2.32
Irtysh Omsk
1.70

allows per match

Zvezda Perm
0.79
Irtysh Omsk
1.67

finishing

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zvezda Perm ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zvezda Perm or draw
76%
Zvezda Perm or Irtysh Omsk
78%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
46%

Winning margin

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
32%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
86%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
59%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
32%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
71%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
36%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
70%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zvezda Perm at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zvezda Perm attack 2.32 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.99

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.70 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Zvezda Perm scores more
54%
level
22%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
24%

Zvezda Perm at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zvezda Perm vs Irtysh Omsk

Zvezda Perm beat Irtysh Omsk 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.