Irtysh Omsk 1–0 Zvezda Perm: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zvezda Perm

8/18/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Krasnaya Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Irtysh Omsk42%

×Draw26%

Zvezda Perm32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchZvezda Perm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.20

Irtysh Omsk

1.43

Zvezda Perm

1.20

Irtysh Omsk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

1.61

creates per match

1.46

0.93

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.61

Zvezda Perm

1.46

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.93

Zvezda Perm

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Zvezda Perm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

68%

Irtysh Omsk or Zvezda Perm

74%

Draw or Zvezda Perm

58%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

20%

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

76%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

42%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

17%

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

70%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

34%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

57%

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.61 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + Irtysh Omsk defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

42%

level

26%

Zvezda Perm scores more

32%

Irtysh Omsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff