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Zürich W vs Aarau W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Zürich W
Zürich W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aarau W
Aarau W
3/22/2025AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 18Sportanlage Heerenschürli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Zürich W76%
×Draw15%
Aarau W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zürich W
2.73
Aarau W
0.87

Zürich W creates 214% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 54 away

creates per match

Zürich W
2.97
Aarau W
0.74

allows per match

Zürich W
1.00
Aarau W
2.48

finishing

Zürich W+0.00on par
Aarau W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich W ↓

Aarau W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Zürich W or draw
90%
Zürich W or Aarau W
85%
Draw or Aarau W
24%

Winning margin

Zürich W wins by 2+
55%
Aarau W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zürich W 1+ goals
93%
Zürich W 2+ goals
75%
Zürich W 3+ goals
50%
Aarau W 1+ goals
58%
Aarau W 2+ goals
22%
Aarau W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zürich W (draw refunded)
89%
Aarau W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich W at home — creates 2.97, concedes 1.00 · 69 matches

Aarau W away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.48 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich W attack 2.97 + Aarau W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.73

Aarau W attack 0.74 + Zürich W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Zürich W scores more
76%
level
15%
Aarau W scores more
10%

Zürich W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Zürich W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AXA Women’s Super League: Zürich W 1–0 Aarau W

Zürich W beat Aarau W 1-0 in AXA Women’s Super League on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Heerenschürli in Zürich.