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Aarau W vs Zürich W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Aarau W
Aarau W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zürich W
Zürich W
11/26/2023AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 10Stadion Brügglifeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Aarau W17%
×Draw20%
Zürich W63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarau W
1.05
Zürich W
2.17

Zürich W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 71 away

creates per match

Aarau W
0.96
Zürich W
2.38

allows per match

Aarau W
1.95
Zürich W
1.15

finishing

Aarau W+0.00on par
Zürich W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarau W ↓

Zürich W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Aarau W or draw
37%
Aarau W or Zürich W
80%
Draw or Zürich W
83%

Winning margin

Aarau W wins by 2+
6%
Zürich W wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Aarau W 1+ goals
65%
Aarau W 2+ goals
28%
Aarau W 3+ goals
9%
Zürich W 1+ goals
89%
Zürich W 2+ goals
64%
Zürich W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Aarau W (draw refunded)
22%
Zürich W (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarau W at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.95 · 55 matches

Zürich W away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarau W attack 0.96 + Zürich W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Zürich W attack 2.38 + Aarau W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Aarau W scores more
17%
level
20%
Zürich W scores more
63%

Zürich W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zürich W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarau W vs Zürich W

Zürich W beat Aarau W 2-0 in AXA Women’s Super League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Brügglifeld in Aarau.