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Zürich II vs FC Chiasso — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Zürich II
Zürich II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
5/14/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Promotion Round - 2Sportanlage Heerenschürli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Zürich II36%
×Draw24%
FC Chiasso40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zürich II
1.47
FC Chiasso
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 26 away

creates per match

Zürich II
1.75
FC Chiasso
1.65

allows per match

Zürich II
1.50
FC Chiasso
1.19

finishing

Zürich II+0.00on par
FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zürich II ↓

FC Chiasso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zürich II or draw
60%
Zürich II or FC Chiasso
76%
Draw or FC Chiasso
64%

Winning margin

Zürich II wins by 2+
17%
FC Chiasso wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zürich II 1+ goals
77%
Zürich II 2+ goals
43%
Zürich II 3+ goals
18%
FC Chiasso 1+ goals
79%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
46%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zürich II (draw refunded)
47%
FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zürich II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 104 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zürich II attack 1.75 + FC Chiasso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.47

FC Chiasso attack 1.65 + Zürich II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zürich II scores more
36%
level
24%
FC Chiasso scores more
40%

FC Chiasso at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zürich II vs FC Chiasso

FC Chiasso beat Zürich II 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Heerenschürli in Zürich.